A Level Maths Notes: S4 – The Geometric Distribution
The geometric distribution models players of a game 'in search of success' . When a player wins they stop playing. There are three conditions the game must satisfy:
When the player wins he stops playing, or at least the geometric distribution ceases to model the game at this point. If the player continues to play, a new geometric distribution is required.
The probability of winning each game is a constant
If
the players get better as more games are played then
is
not constant and the distribution cannot be geometric.
Each game is independent. If a player loses he is not more likely to win the next time and vice versa.
If the probability of winning is
and
the player wins – and stops playing – at the nth attempt
then the player must have
failures
before this success. Since each failure is independent with
probability
the
probability of this is
and
since they win on the next attempt with probability
we have
this
is called the probability mass function – discrete distributions
have probability mass functions as opposed to the probability density
functions for continuous distributions.
The expected number of attempts to win the game is
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We can also find the variance:
Then![]()
and![]()
![]()
This is called the cumulative mass function.