University Maths Notes: Probability and Statistics – Confidence Intervals for Coefficients in Regression Lines
For a regression line
the
are
themselves random variables. To find estimates for the
we
form an expression for the sum of the error terms squared:
We
minimise this sum by allowing the
to
vary. Differentiating each with respect to each
leads
to the following system of equations:

Because the regression line
is
linear in the b_i the equations above are linear too. We can solve
this system of linear equations to solve for the
these
solutions are labelled
The
are
themselves random variables because they are functions of the random
variables
Because
the equations are linear, the
are
normally distributed with corresponding standard deviation
We
can then construct confidence intervals for each![]()
![]()
Typically we want to test whether 0 is in the interval. If it is,
then at the significance level of the test, there is no evidence of a
correlation between
and![]()
Much of the time the
and
are
found automatically with computer packages.
Example: The table below gives data on the amount of iron, aluminium and phosphate in soil.
|
Observation |
|
|
|
|
1 |
61 |
13 |
4 |
|
2 |
175 |
21 |
18 |
|
3 |
111 |
24 |
14 |
|
4 |
124 |
23 |
18 |
|
5 |
130 |
64 |
26 |
|
6 |
173 |
38 |
26 |
|
7 |
169 |
33 |
21 |
|
8 |
169 |
61 |
30 |
|
9 |
160 |
39 |
28 |
|
10 |
244 |
71 |
36 |
|
11 |
257 |
112 |
65 |
|
12 |
333 |
88 |
62 |
|
13 |
199 |
54 |
40 |
A computer package returns the results:
|
Parameter |
Estimate, |
Estimated standard deviation,
|
|
|
-7.35100 |
3.48500 |
|
|
0.11273 |
0.02969 |
|
|
0.34900 |
0.07131 |
A 99% confidence interval for
is
then, with![]()
![]()
A 99% confidence interval for
is,
with![]()
![]()