## Standing Room Only

In 2012 the global fertility rate - births per woman - was 2.5, compared to 2.0 needed for a stable population, assuming no stillbirths, and that all babies born survived to have children themselves. This means that every couple produced 2.5 children and over the course of a generation the population increases by a factor of\[\frac{2.5}{2.0}=1.25\]

.In 2012 the world population was about 7 billion. After n generations the world population would be

\[7 \times 10^9 \times 1.25^n\]

.the Earth is roughly a sphere of

\[6370 km = 6.370 \times 10^6 m\]

so has a surface area equal to \[4 \pi r^2 = 4 \pi \times (6370 \times 10^6)^2 =5.1 \times 10^14 m^2\]

Over the whole surface of the Earth, each person will have only 1 square metre to call his own when the population equals the surface area.

\[7 \times 10^9 \times 1.25^n =5.1 \times 10^14 \]

This will be after

\[n = \frac{ln((5,1 \times 10^14)/(7 \times 10^9))}{ln 1.25} = 50\]

generations.If we take a generation as 45 years, there will be standing room only after

\[50 \times 45 = 2250\]

years.