\[N\]
is reached?Suppose that a page has
\[n\]
visitors per day. The probability of a person liking the page is \[p\]
and the probability of someone disliking it is \[p\]
. Suppose also that these two probabilities are independent. The expect number of likes in a day is \[np\]
and the expected number of dislikes in \[nq\]
. The expected number of net likes is \[np-nq=n(p-q)\]
The in will be an estimated
\[\frac{N}{n(p-q)}\]
days before you get \[N\]
Facebook likes. If \[q \gt p\]
then you probably have more dislikes than likes and your threshold may never be reached.