University Maths Notes: Probability and Statistics – Conditional Probability Distributions
Given two jointly distributed random variables
and
the
conditional probability distribution of
given
is
the probability distribution of
when
is
known to be a particular value.
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0 |
1 |
2 |
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0 |
0.05 |
0.05 |
0 |
0.1 |
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1 |
0.2 |
0.05 |
0.15 |
0.4 |
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2 |
0.1 |
0.06 |
0.04 |
0.2 |
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3 |
0.1 |
0.08 |
0.12 |
0.3 |
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0.45 |
0.24 |
0.31 |
1 |
The conditional probabilities for
given
are
obtained by dividing each entry by the righthandmost entry shown in
bold, giving
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1 |
2 |
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0 |
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0.1 |
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1 |
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0.4 |
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2 |
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0.2 |
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3 |
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0.3 |
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0.45 |
0.24 |
0.31 |
1 |
Note that each row sums to one.
The conditional probabilities for
given
are
obtained by dividing each entry by the bottom entry in the column
shown in bold, giving
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1 |
2 |
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0 |
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0.1 |
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1 |
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0.4 |
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2 |
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0.2 |
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3 |
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0.3 |
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0.45 |
0.24 |
0.31 |
1 |
Note that each column sums to one.
To generalise, for discrete random variables, the conditional
probability mass function of
given
(the occurrence of) the value
of
with
can
be written, using the definition of conditional probability, as:
We can write down also the probability distribution of
given![]()
![]()
From these we deduce
(1)
Similarly for continuous random variables, the conditional
probability density function X given the value y of Y is
and the conditional probability density function of
given
the value
of
can
be written as![]()
where
gives
the joint density of
and
while
for
gives
the marginal distribution function for![]()
Similarly as for (1) we can write![]()
If for discrete random variables
for
all
and
or
for continuous random variables
or
or
equivalently
for
all
and
then
and
are
independent.
As a function of
given
is
a probability and so the sum over all
(or
integral if it is a conditional probability density) is 1. Seen as a
function of
for
given
it
is a likelihood function, so that the sum over all
need
not be 1.