Age | No. Females Alive 1940 | No. Females Alive 1955 | Female Birth 1940 - 1955 |
0 - 14 | 14,459 | 16,428 | 4,651 |
15 - 29 | 15,264 | 14,258 | 10,403 |
30 - 44 | 11,346 | 14,836 | 1,374 |
0 - 14 | 15 - 29 | 30 - 44 | |
Probability of Giving Birth | \[\frac{4,651}{14,459}=0.32167\] |
\[\frac{10,403}{15,264}=0.0.68154\] |
\[\frac{1,374}{11,346}=0.12110\] |
Probability of Surviving Into Next Age Group | \[\frac{14,258}{14,459}=0.98610\] |
0 | 0 |
Probability of Surviving Into Next Age Group | 0 | \[\frac{14,836}{15,264}=0.97196\] |
0 |
\[ \left( \begin{array}{ccc} 0.32167 & 0.68154 & 0.12110 \\ 0.98610 & 0 & 0 \\ 0 & 0.97196 & 0 \end{array} \right) \begin{pmatrix}14,459\\15,264\\11,346\end{pmatrix} = \begin{pmatrix}16,428\\14,258\\14,836\end{pmatrix}\]
The predicted populations in each age group in 1970 is then
\[ \left( \begin{array}{ccc} 0.32167 & 0.68154 & 0.12110 \\ 0.98610 & 0 & 0 \\ 0 & 0.97196 & 0 \end{array} \right)^2 \begin{pmatrix}14,459\\15,264\\11,346\end{pmatrix} = \begin{pmatrix}16,799\\16,200\\13,858\end{pmatrix}\]
The predicted populations in each age group in 1985 is then
\[ \left( \begin{array}{ccc} 0.32167 & 0.68154 & 0.12110 \\ 0.98610 & 0 & 0 \\ 0 & 0.97196 & 0 \end{array} \right)^3 \begin{pmatrix}14,459\\15,264\\11,346\end{pmatrix} = \begin{pmatrix}18,123\\16,565\\15747\end{pmatrix}\]