\[\lambda =1\]
, and initially the shop has three cameras in stock find the transition matrix.The shop has between o and 3 cameras in stock at any time.
Poisson tables are here.
End of Week\End of Next Week | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
0 | 0.080 | 0.184 | 0.368 | 0.368 |
1 | 0.632 | 0.368 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 0.264 | 0.368 | 0.368 | 0 |
3 | 0.080 | 0.184 | 0.368 | 0.358 |
\[A= \left( \begin{array}{cccc} 0.080 & 0.184 & 0.368 & 0.368 \\ 0.632 & 0.368 & 0 & 0 \\ 0.264 & 0.368 & 0.368 & 0 \\ 0.080 & 0.184 & 0.368 & 0.368 \end{array} \right)\]
.This is called the ONE STEP transition matrix - ONE STEP because we are using a week as a unit of time, and go from week to week.
The TWO STEP transition matrix is
\[A^2= \left( \begin{array}{cccc} 0.249 & 0.286 & 0.300 & 0.165 \\ 0.283 & 0.252 & 0.233 & 0.233 \\ 0.351 & 0.319 & 0.233 & 0.097 \\ 0.249 & 0.286 & 0.300 & 0.165 \end{array} \right)\]
, and predicts the number of cameras in the shop at the end of two weeks.The N STEP transition matrix is
\[A^n\]
, and predicts the number of cameras in the shop at the end of \[n\]
weeks.